Washington, Jan 7: A new approach to assessing future sea level rise from ice sheets has been found that mathematically pools experts’ opinions.
The study is the first of its kind on ice sheet melting to use structured expert elicitation (EE), which is already used in a number of other scientific fields such as forecasting volcanic eruptions.
The ice sheets covering Antarctica and Greenland contain about 99.5 percent of the Earth’s glacier ice which would raise global sea level by some 63 metres if it were to melt completely.
The ice sheets are the largest potential source of future sea level rise – and they also possess the largest uncertainty over their future behaviour.
They present some unique challenges for predicting their future response using numerical modelling and, as a consequence, alternative approaches have been explored.
One such approach is via carefully soliciting and pooling expert judgements – a practice already used in fields as diverse as eruption forecasting and the spread of vector borne diseases.
In this study Professor Jonathan Bamber and Professor Willy Aspinall used such an approach to assess the uncertainties in the future response of the ice sheets.
They found that the median estimate for the sea level contribution from the ice sheets by 2100 was 29cm with a 5 percent probability that it could exceed 84cm.
When combined with other sources of sea level rise, this implies a conceivable risk of a rise of greater than 1m by 2100, which would have deeply profound consequences for humankind.
The IPCC’s report provided figures ranging from 18cm to 59cm for six possible scenarios.
The researchers also found that the scientists, as a group, were highly uncertain about the cause of the recent increase in ice sheet mass loss observed by satellites and equally unsure whether this was part of a long term trend or due to short-term fluctuations in the climate system.
The study is published in the journal Nature Climate Change. (ANI)