London, Jan 17: China is expected to exceed Europe to become the largest energy importer in the world by 2035, said a report issued by British oil giant BP.
The annual Energy Outlook 2035 report, released Wednesday, forecast global energy consumption to grow 41 percent from 2012 to 2035 — slower than the growth of 55 percent during the 1989-2012 period, Xinhua reported.
Of the global energy consumption growth, 95 percent is expected to come from emerging economies, while the energy consumption in developed countries will slow down.
According to the report, China’s energy production will rise 61 percent by 2035 while consumption will grow by 71 percent. China’s share in global demand will rise from 22 percent to 27 percent in 2035, and its import dependence will rise from 15 percent to 20 percent.
“China’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal’s dominance declining from 69 percent to 52 percent and natural gas doubling to 12 percent with oil unchanged around 18 percent,” the report said.
It predicted China to overtake the US as the world’s largest oil consumer by 2027 and Russia as the world’s second largest gas consumer by 2025, after the US.
For fast growth of energy consumption, the report held that energy consumed by transport will surge 120 percent, the fastest among all the sectors.
Oil remains the dominant fuel but loses market share, dropping from 90 percent to 82 percent in 2038 while gas share increases from 5 percent to 12 percent, the report read.
Share of shale gas of China and North America will increase to 81 percent by 2035, according to the report.
BP chief executive Bob Dudley expressed confidence that energy production will be able to keep pace thanks to the trends in global technology, investment and policy.
Dudley said new energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply.
“Energy efficiency promises to improve unabatedly, driven by globalisation and competition,” he said.