New Delhi Jan 29: Ratings agency India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) Wednesday said it has maintained a stable outlook for the nation’s oil and gas sector for 2014-15.
“Ind-Ra has maintained a stable outlook on the oil and gas sector for FY15. The rating outlook for both public and private sector oil and gas companies remains stable,” the agency said in a statement here.
Ind-Ra expects public sector companies to sustain strong linkages with the government or maintain business stability in case of standalone ratings.
It said the existing ratings of private sector companies “have sufficient headroom to withstand the impact of muted global growth and further moderation in gross refining margins (GRM)”.
The agency estimates Brent crude oil prices to stay in the range of $104-108 per barrel in 2014-15 with the energy self-sufficiency of the US likely to have a moderating influence on global oil rates.
It cautioned, however, that the “Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), responsible for around 40 percent of global crude production and around 60 percent of global traded crude, may lower its output as it has done in the past, in the face of moderation in crude oil prices”.
The price of Indian crude basket may reduce by $2 to $4 per barrel in the next fiscal. “This, along with muted incremental demand for crude oil in FY15, is unlikely to deteriorate revenue losses or under recoveries on diesel and cooking fuel sales, in US dollar terms during the year from FY14 levels,” Ind-Ra said.
On the other hand, if the rupee depreciates significantly against the US dollar, such a benefit may be wiped out.
According to the agency, in view of the tentative recovery in the global economy, the demand for refinery distillates is likely to remain muted.