London, Jan 17: World energy demand is forecast to increase by 41 percent between 2012 and 2035, with growth averaging 1.5 percent each year, said a new energy outlook report issued by the British oil giant BP.
However, the energy demand growth will slow down in the future, from 2.2 percent each year between 2005 and 2015, to 1.7 percent per year in 2015-2025, and then just 1.1 percent in the final decade, said the BP annual report for Energy Outlook 2035 released Wednesday, Xinhua reported.
The report also said that gas will overtake oil as the main source of energy in member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) by 2031, with the increase of production of cheap shale gas.
The report said global demand for natural gas will grow by 1.9 percent annually over the period to 2035, to reaching 497 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2035, with non-OECD growth at 2.7 percent per year, outpacing the OECD at 1 percent per year.
“In the OECD, gas will overtake oil as the dominant fuel by 2031, reaching a share of 31 percent in primary energy by 2035. But in the non-OECD, gas remains in third place, behind coal and oil, with a 24 percent share of primary energy by 2035.”
The fastest growing sector in gas consumption is transport to be at 7.3 percent a year.
But in volume terms, the report said, the largest growth comes from industry sector at 71 Bcf/d, increasing 1.9 percent a year, and power sector at 63 Bcf/d, posing a growth rate of 1.9 percent a year.
According to the report, shale gas supply is dominated by North America, which is predicted to account for 99 percent of shale gas supply until 2016 and for 70 percent by 2035.
“However, shale gas growth outside North America accelerates and by 2027 will overtake North American growth.
“China is the most promising country for shale growth outside North America, accounting for 13 percent of world shale gas growth; together, China and North America will account for 81 percent of shale gas by 2035,” the report said.